Assessment of Population Displacement Dynamics Influencing Urban Heat Risk Using the Geospatial Analysis During the Syrian Crisis in Latakia City

Suzan Karmoka; Ashok D Hanjagi

doi:10.53989/bu.ga.v14i2.25.2 7

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Geographical analysis

DOI: 10.53989/bu.ga.v14i2.25.2 7

Year: 2025, Volume: 14, Issue: 2, Pages: 53-61

Original Article

Assessment of Population Displacement Dynamics Influencing Urban Heat Risk Using the Geospatial Analysis During the Syrian Crisis in Latakia City

Suzan Karmoka^1*, Ashok D Hanjagi¹

¹Department of Geography and GeoInformatics, Bangalore University, Jnana Bharathi, Bengaluru, 560056, Karnataka, India

*Corresponding Author
Email: [email protected]

Received Date:05 February 2025, Accepted Date:25 October 2025

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Abstract

Many developing countries face challenges in urban planning, often failing to allocate sufficient space, particularly green areas, to support healthy living conditions and essential services. Latakia, Syria, exemplifies this issue, especially following the massive influx of displaced populations due to the Syrian crisis over the past decade. As one of the country's safest cities, Latakia has experienced significant population pressure, leading to unregulated urban expansion at the expense of green spaces. This unplanned growth has intensified the urban heat island (UHI) effect. To assess the rising UHI effect in Latakia, this study applied the Heat Risk Index (HRI), calculated using a five-degree weighting system. The findings indicate that in 2013, no sector exhibited extreme heat risk, with levels ranging from mild to severe. However, by 2023, heat risk had escalated across most sectors. Notably, Al Sleibeh and Al-Raml Aljanobi sectors reached extreme heat risk levels, correlating with population increases of 64% and 24%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Southern Corniche and Mashrou Alqalaa sectors maintained moderate risk levels. The Al-Datour sector demonstrated the most significant change, with its HRI rising by two levels to a severe risk category, primarily due to an 8% urban expansion over agricultural lands. To mitigate UHI effects, Latakia urgently requires innovative adaptation strategies. Addressing climate change impacts and population pressures necessitates strategic, localized planning. HRI can serve as a foundation for these efforts by pinpointing priority areas for targeted adaptation interventions.

Keywords: Heat Risk Index, Latakia, Population Density, Urban Heat Islands

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Copyright

© 2025 Karmoka & Hanjagi. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Published By Bangalore University, Bengaluru, Karnataka